Karl Raymond Popper (1902-1994)’s Situational Logic in Use

The problem: A superpower India is a threat to the Persian Gulf countries?

The Political actor: Superpower India

The Institutions: SARC organisation – Persian Gulf Cooperation Council – UN – OPEC

Physical Environment: India – Persian Gulf – Pakistan – Iran – Iraq – Kuwait – Saudi Arabia – Bahrain – Qatar – USE – Oman Sea – Indian Ocean

Other political Actors: China – Russia – USA – Egypt – Israel- EU

Emerging Superpower India Estimation arise when some characters like world’s second population, long – high - continuous economic development rate with the guesses to be fourth world economy power by 2025, a developing military capacity and soft power like space technology, Atomic… were available.

A superpower is a self-stand and strong power with an own international policy and national interests… But now India cannot reach to this point when it lost its independent in international policy by signing “123” treaty with U.S.A in 2005. Thus India downgrades itself as second hand power and with this move it just evaluates as partner for US policy at last. Therefor increasing Indian interference in world process will consider as a part of India’s role in whole US policy toward others.

Superpower supposed to has an exact national and world interests but India based on “123” treaty committed to US to behave properly and the US Ministry of State should report India progress annually so as it is clear India a last will be an active ally for US.

But if India appears as independent superpower it will make some problem for Persian Gulf countries. India’s economy depends to Persian Gulf’s energy and market so same as US, India will impose its policies to them and will interfere in these countries internal affairs. Large amount of Indian who lives in these countries with addition of hard and soft Indian power’s capacity will help it in this regards.

As history also shows, Indian power appearance in this region will be as partner along with world power like US and its rivals like Pakistan and China will balance Indian role. Also Israel and Egypt will play their roles.

Course:

Research Methodologies and Methods
by: Dr. Mohammad Samiei

Article by:

Seyed Mostafa Mostafavi - M.A Student in Indian Studies

Faculty of world studies - University of Tehran

1391/12/19

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